The weather has led to a reduction in the growth rate of the economy.
The influence of weather conditions on growth of economy of Ukraine in I quarter of 2019 as a whole was negative. This assessment is contained in the Inflation report National Bank.
As noted in the review, in February and March 2019, the weather conditions have made a significant positive contribution to growth in the volume of construction work, however, made a larger negative contribution to the energy indicators.
“As a result, the overall contribution of weather conditions in the production Index of basic industries (IPB) for the first quarter of 2019 was a negative, but negligible (0.2 percentage points),” estimated by experts of the NBU.
According to the NBU, the cold winter weather is having a negative impact on the dynamics of the mining industry. So, by reducing the temperature by 1 degree on average, the growth rate slowed down by 0.5 percentage points, a Similar influence of the weather in winter is observed in the indicators of the processing industry.
However, deteriorating weather conditions had a negative influence on all sectors. So, cold weather (compared to the previous year) during the heating period causes an increase in the output indicators of the energy sector. By NBU estimates, a reduction of air temperature by 1 degree compared to the corresponding period of the previous year is a consequence of the growth of the energy sector during the cold period (October – March) the average was 1.1 percentage points
“Despite the significant impact on the composite index of economic activities (IPBO) in some months, overall weather conditions have a temporary effect and insignificant impact on the quarterly and annual indicators, with the exception of their effect on crop yields”, – noted in the review.
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